Spare Time Trades

I had a little spare time to trade the last two days which is rare during the school semester. I found myself to be a little trigger shy so I stayed small to see if I could get back into a groove. I only had time for one trade yesterday and one today both in Apple (AAPL) calls because the stock has been a beast. I only made out with lunch money in both of them because my timing was off but I am ok with that. Here is the trade confirmations.

AAPL has been a monster the last couple weeks. If I have time in the morning and the futures are strong I will look to enter the Oct 300 calls again for a trade because the stock has been making big moves right out of the gate at the open and really wants higher.



Good Video by gtotoy

Floored Movie

FLOORED

A world that’s more riot than profession, the trading floors of Chicago are a place where gambling your family’s mortgage is all in a day’s work. Now, when markets are unhinged, FLOORED offers a unique window to this lesser-known world of finance. Traders may not have degrees, but they’ve got guts, and penchant for excess. But like many aspects of our economy, technology is changing their business, and these eccentric pit denizens aren’t the type to take kindly to new tricks. Computerized trading may take the emotion out of the job, but it may also take these old-timers out- they are dinosaurs in a young man’s game. At a time when millions have lost fortunes in the fickle stock market and fear abounds about the faltering financial system, FLOORED is a gripping, honest look behind the curtain of the trading floor that few have ever seen. 
I just watched this film via amazon video on demand and give it two thumbs up. It's only about an hour and fifteen minutes long and very well done. I recommend everyone check it out.  

Portfolio Update

Citi (C) chart looks good, above all the major moving averages after popping back above the 50 dma today. Nice rising 10 and 20 day moving average as well as a strong reading on the stochastics. Financials have been strong since the Basel III accord was released and didn't have the kind of teeth that was expected and of the large banks Citi is the best value. I still think that before the end of the year the government will sell out the rest of its stake in the company and when that news is disseminated we will see Citi at $5+ in short order, which is why I am playing it through December calls.

Jamba Juice (JMBA) has finally got some life back into it over the last two weeks and its nicely above a rising 10 and 20 day moving average and a flat 50 day. Unfortunately, it is still stuck under the 200 day, and outside of this past Monday, has seen abysmal volume. If the market strength continues and JMBA gets through $2.50, I think we will see a nice run back to the highs and beyond because this one is worth far more than its current market value. James White is doing a fabulous job turning around this company and the nice steady improvement quarter after quarter is proof of that.

Fortress International Group (FIGI) is the investment that I am most excited about. This company's fundamentals are simply exploding and they are signing new contracts one after the other, building the backlog very nicley. If your not in this one already, take a half hour and listen to the investor call from Wednesday at the Rodman and Renshaw conference and do a little research, you will be shocked that this one isn't shooting through the moon.

Stocks Vs. Bonds Since March Low *Updated and Corrected

 

With all the talk of a bond bubble lately I decided to make up a quick chart to look at the performance of the S&P 500 and the TLT since the March 2009 bottom in the stock market. This is only a relationship you can compare in the relative short term and the chart above is two years from September 2008 to yesterday. I used the S&P 500 on the blue line for stocks and the TLT on the red as a proxy for bonds.You can clearly see the March low in the S&P and the relative top in bonds a few months prior. The S&P has come about 64% off the lows while bonds are a mere 11% off the highs from when the financial crisis was at its worst and "the world was ending". I will say no more and allow you to draw your own conclusions about what is to come.

Stop The Doom and Gloom

Above is the ASA Temporary Staffing Index from January 2007 to August 2010 and as you can see it has been trending strong since its low in January of 2009. Below is the weekly continuing jobless claims data between the same time period. I decided to throw that in here just so you can see the big picture instead of concentrating too much on the week to week noise.

Now here is a GDP growth chart. Two weeks ago revised Q2 GDP was revised down to 1.6% from I believe 2.4%. I can't sugarcoat the downward revision, but what I will say is that we came off a Q4 2009 rate of 5% and a Q1 2010 rate of 3.7% and if you understand simple math you know that as your base number gets larger, the growth percentage tends to come in.  

This is the better way to look at quarterly GDP data

Personal Income and Spending still trending higher minus the short term noise.

Also check out Todd Sullivan's favorite leading indicator, rail car traffic. I could go on and on with chart after chart and they all show the same big picture, just felt like posting a few because I am tired of hearing all the double dippers doom and gloom. Make it a great Labor Day Weekend!!!

Portfolio Update

Today I took advantage of the substantial two day rally we have had to sell a few December 4 calls in Citi so that now my Citi position is 1/2 long December 3/4 call spread and 1/2 naked long December 3 calls. I decided to leave 1/2 my call position naked so that if the small chance that the jobs number is good tomorrow I will be able to take advantage of it and if not I will have a small delta hedge.