Saturday, September 4, 2010

Stop The Doom and Gloom


Above is the ASA Temporary Staffing Index from January 2007 to August 2010 and as you can see it has been trending strong since its low in January of 2009. Below is the weekly continuing jobless claims data between the same time period. I decided to throw that in here just so you can see the big picture instead of concentrating too much on the week to week noise.


Now here is a GDP growth chart. Two weeks ago revised Q2 GDP was revised down to 1.6% from I believe 2.4%. I can't sugarcoat the downward revision, but what I will say is that we came off a Q4 2009 rate of 5% and a Q1 2010 rate of 3.7% and if you understand simple math you know that as your base number gets larger, the growth percentage tends to come in.  


This is the better way to look at quarterly GDP data




Personal Income and Spending still trending higher minus the short term noise.



Also check out Todd Sullivan's favorite leading indicator, rail car traffic. I could go on and on with chart after chart and they all show the same big picture, just felt like posting a few because I am tired of hearing all the double dippers doom and gloom. Make it a great Labor Day Weekend!!!

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Portfolio Update

Today I took advantage of the substantial two day rally we have had to sell a few December 4 calls in Citi so that now my Citi position is 1/2 long December 3/4 call spread and 1/2 naked long December 3 calls. I decided to leave 1/2 my call position naked so that if the small chance that the jobs number is good tomorrow I will be able to take advantage of it and if not I will have a small delta hedge.